1. Why “More Moore” Is Reaching Its Limits
For decades, the semiconductor industry followed Moore's law: the number of transistors per chip doubled roughly every 18–24 months, primarily through shrinking feature sizes. This scaling path was so reliable that for generations it was treated as a law of nature for the industry, and entire business models -- from processor makers to lithography equipment suppliers -- were built on top of it.
At feature sizes in the single-digit nanometer range, however, this scaling increasingly runs into physical and economic limits that can no longer be worked around simply through better process technology. On the physical side, leakage currents rise due to short-channel effects: the shorter the channel between source and drain becomes, the harder it is to fully suppress current flow in the off state, leading to unwanted power dissipation and heat generation -- an effect addressed among other things by FinFET and gate-all-around architectures. On the economic side, lithography cost per exposure step is exploding: modern EUV systems can cost well over 200 million euros per machine, and with every additional process node the number of required mask layers and double- or multi-patterning exposure steps grows further. On top of that, yield drops disproportionately for large monolithic chips, since the probability of a defect grows statistically with chip area -- a single particle or pattern defect can render an entire large die unusable.
At the same time, demand for computing power -- driven not least by AI accelerators, whose training and inference workloads benefit from additional compute and memory capacity in a practically unbounded way -- calls for ever more transistors per system. The industry's answer increasingly lies not solely in smaller transistors but in a smarter arrangement and connection of multiple chips: advanced packaging. Rather than continuing to push back the limits of a single manufacturing process, a growing share of innovation shifts to the question of how several dies, potentially manufactured in different technologies, can be brought together into an overall system as densely, quickly, and cost-effectively as possible.